The hottest PMI ended its rising momentum, and all

2022-08-13
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PMI ended its rising momentum, and all 10 sub indexes fell

PMI ended its rising momentum, and all 10 sub indexes fell

China Construction machinery information

it is more difficult for the economy to climb up

yesterday (September 1), data released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing (hereinafter referred to as CFLP) and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was 51.1% in August 2014, A sharp drop of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, of which 10 sub indexes fell. The indicator also ended the previous five consecutive months of recovery

the final value of HSBC manufacturing PMI in August was 50.2, previously expected to be 50.3, and the final value in July was 51.7. Analysts believe that the effect of steady growth has weakened. At present, China's economy is in a weak stage in the peak season, and there is still a certain expansion capacity in the future

Quhongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, said that although external demand has improved, domestic demand has become increasingly sluggish. On the whole, China's economy is still facing considerable downside risks in the second half of the year, and policies need to be further relaxed to ensure economic stability

new orders fell and inventory rose

among the 12 sub indexes of the official PMI, compared with the previous month, except for the rise of the inventory index of finished products and the expected index of production and operation activities, other indexes fell

production and demand related indexes are closely linked to economic growth. CFLP analyst chenzhongtao believes that the decline of PMI index this month is mainly reflected in the decline of new order index, which also led to the decline of production index. Specifically, the new order index ended its rise for five consecutive months in August, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month to 52.5%, slightly higher than 0.1 percentage points in the same period last year, reflecting a slowdown in demand recovery, such as tube and rod profiles

"the rebound in demand has slowed down, enterprises have difficulty receiving orders, and production and business activities have been affected to a certain extent. The PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises has generally fallen, especially small and medium-sized enterprises." Said Chen Zhongtao. By enterprise size, the PMI of medium-sized enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points month on month; The PMI index of small enterprises fell by 1 percentage point month on month

corresponding to the change of new order index, the inventory index of finished products increased slightly for three consecutive months, the purchase price index of raw materials fell again, the trend of industry PMI index was differentiated, and the rebound of employee index was weak. The decline in the price index of means of production expanded, with a month on month decrease of 0.79%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points over the previous month

Lian Ping, chief analyst of Bank of communications, also told the daily economy that due to the drag of real estate, economic activity in the manufacturing industry is expected to decline, the purchase price index of major raw materials fell, and there is still deflationary pressure in the manufacturing industry

the purchase price index in PMI in August was 49.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Everbright Securities report pointed out that the trend of enterprises' willingness to actively replenish inventory has not continued. If the difference between raw material inventory and finished product inventory is used to measure the willingness of enterprises to actively replenish inventory, the index increased slightly in July compared with the previous month, but decreased in August

the bottom of real estate dragged down the economy

CFLP special analyst Zhang Liqun pointed out that the PMI index fell significantly in August, indicating that there is a certain downward pressure on the current economy. Among them, the production, new orders, purchase volume and purchase price index decreased by more than 1 percentage point, reflecting the decline in market demand and enterprise production and operation activities, indicating that industrial growth may continue to decline slightly in the future

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, said that in the case of a high base last year, the year-on-year growth rate of 9% of industrial production in July was still relatively stable, but the growth momentum was slightly lower than that in June and weaker than market expectations. Among them, power generation and steel production slowed down significantly

"on the other hand, although there is policy support, the investment in real estate and manufacturing summarized by weak Jinan Shijin in 2014 has dragged down the investment in fixed assets." Wang Tao said. The growth rate from January to July was only 13.7%, down 6.8 percentage points from the same period last year. The real estate industry has been deeply adjusted, and the growth rate of development investment has decreased significantly

"real estate has not yet bottomed out, and the drag on the macro economy will continue for some time." Said Yan Yuejin, a researcher at Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute

Everbright Securities believes that the main driving force of domestic economic growth is the government's steady growth policy under the condition that the driving force of external demand for economic growth is still limited and the real estate industry continues to sink

however, targeted efforts are difficult to benefit all regions and industries. A person from Hubei Bureau of statistics told the daily economy that the rapid growth of industry in the province in the first half of the year was mainly supported by some major projects put into operation last year, which made it more difficult to maintain high growth in the second half of the year

"two highs" have a good momentum and rapid structural upgrading

although 10 of the 12 sub indicators fell month on month, and the momentum of economic growth slowed down, the industry's expectations are not pessimistic. The expected index of production and business activities increased by 2.6 percentage points to 57.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the average level in the first half of the year, reflecting that enterprises are still optimistic about the economic trend in the second half of the year

"the production and new order indexes are 53.2% and 52.5% respectively, which are still significantly higher than the boom and bust line. Market demand continues to expand, so there is no need to worry too much about the seasonal adjustment decline in August." Lian Ping said

in addition, although the new export order index fell, indicating that short-term exports may face fluctuations, due to the continuous improvement of the external environment, the export situation this year will be better than last year

UBS judged that developers may accelerate the construction pace before the arrival of the "golden nine and silver ten" to speed up the promotion. In addition, the base number in the same period last year is low, and the decision-making level may further support the construction of affordable housing. The pace of new construction in August is expected to further accelerate, and the real estate sales area may also improve month on month. Here are some highlights you can't miss:

the upgrading of industrial structure is undoubtedly good news for China in the transition period. According to the CFLP report, the "two high-tech" industries, namely, high-end equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech industry, have maintained a good momentum of development. Since this year, the PMI index of general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing and computer communication electronic equipment manufacturing has remained at about 55%, significantly higher than the overall level of the national manufacturing industry. The decline is mainly due to the traditional basic raw material industry and overcapacity industries, such as the steel industry

the above-mentioned person from Hubei Bureau of Statistics said that at present, the dividends of various reforms are gradually emerging, the micro environment is further improved, the efficiency of factor flow and allocation is further improved, the economy will grow steadily in the second half of the year, and the operation quality is expected to be further improved

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