Growth history of the hottest bearing industry

2022-08-13
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The growth history of bearing industry

China's bearing industry CR10 and cr30 have been hovering around 30% and 45% for a long time, and the industrial concentration is too low. Among them, the income of Tianma bearing, a leading enterprise, is less than 1/20 of SKF. We believe that China's "SKF" and "century old" axis enterprises will emerge in the future

the annual average import substitution and foreign brand substitution space of the bearing industry is nearly 50billion yuan

according to the statistics of China bearing association, China imported 3.8 billion US dollars of bearings in 2010. If we consider SKF, Schaeffler, Timken and other foreign-funded enterprises in China, we believe that the replacement space of imported and foreign-funded brands in the bearing industry in 2010 is billion yuan

in the next five years, China's bearing industry will grow by nearly 15% annually, and medium and high-end products by nearly 20%

during the "12th Five Year Plan", with the growth of new demand for downstream applications and maintenance and transformation demand, the bearing industry will upgrade its product structure from medium and low-end to medium and high-end, and the further development of the international market, we expect the bearing industry to grow by 5.5% Always keep machines clean and tidy. The average annual growth rate of the industry in the next five years will be about 15%, and the growth of medium and high-end products will be faster, which is expected to be about 20%. The bearing industry has the characteristics of "eternal youth"

wind turbine bearings: the market demand is more than 6billion yuan, and the import substitution is only half completed

Automobile Bearings: the market demand exceeds 30billion yuan, and the import substitution of car bearings has just begun

railway bearings: the market demand is about 4billion yuan, and the import substitution is moving towards high-speed EMUs

metallurgical bearings: the market demand is close to 4billion yuan, and there is still much room for import substitution

investment suggestions: give the industry a rating of "prudent recommendation"

we believe that the bearing industry is expected to make a breakthrough in the field of import substitution in the future; In particular, they are optimistic about excellent private leading enterprises with flexible mechanism, standardized management and core technology; "Tianma shares" is highly recommended

main risk factors: macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of slowdown in the growth rate of the downstream host industry

Tianma shares (002122): the first share of the bearing industry is the import substitution, and the integration of the industrial chain is worth looking forward to. The company is the most profitable private enterprise in the domestic bearing industry, with obvious competitive advantages. In the future, the company will focus on import substitution, and most of its products are medium and high-end products. At present, the growth rate of wind power bearings has fallen, and the business development trend of general bearings, railway bearings and machine tools is good. If the experimental data required by customers are not many, we expect that there will still be about 10% performance growth this year. We expect that the company will have opportunities for extensive growth in the future, and the integration of upstream and downstream industrial chains is worth looking forward to. Recently, the company's share price was wrongly killed by the concept of high-speed rail, and was affected by the sluggish peripheral environment of the international capital market. The share price has been at a low level, and the investment value has become prominent. Regardless of the company's extensive expansion, we expect the company's EPS to be 0.62, 0.75, 0.95 yuan, with a reasonable valuation range of yuan, maintaining the "recommended" rating. Catalyst: significant progress has been made in asset integration and major breakthroughs have been made in the import substitution of wind turbine bearings

Longxi Co., Ltd. (60 carton compressive strength DX - corrugated board longitudinal stiffness (Mn · m) 0592): special joint bearing faucet, with promising development prospects. The company is the first joint bearing manufacturer in the world and the largest joint bearing export base in China. With strong technical strength, the company has established the only joint bearing Research Institute and national joint bearing testing and experiment center in China; The development is very steady. In 2011, the net profit of the company increased by 42.11% year-on-year. We believe that benefiting from the pull of downstream industries such as construction machinery, heavy trucks, aerospace (large aircraft, helicopters), industrial robots, the company can still maintain rapid growth in the future. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.45, 0.60, 0.75 yuan, and the reasonable valuation range is yuan

square and circular bearings (002147): the demand for slewing bearings will maintain a rapid growth. As an enterprise directly under the former Ministry of construction, the company is good at the slewing ring of construction machinery and later involved in the wind power yaw pitch bearing, which has a deep technical precipitation. In the first half of the year, the company benefited from the demand pull of construction machinery, heavy machinery and military industry. In 2011, the company's net profit increased by 66.42% year-on-year. We expect the growth rate of net profit in the month to be close to 50%. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.48, 0.60, 0.72 yuan, and the reasonable valuation range is yuan

axis research technology (002046): with strong technical strength, its growth will accelerate in the future. The company is transformed from Luoyang Bearing Research Institute of the former Ministry of machinery, with strong technical research and development strength, and has unique characteristics in the fields of aerospace, military industry, wind power, rail transit bearings, and machine tool spindle bearings. In 2011, the net profit increased by 21.82% year-on-year. Axis research technology plans to purchase about 780 mu of land in Yiluo Industrial Park for the construction of the company's projects, of which about 180 Mu is for scientific research and about 600 mu is for industry. The company plans to invest 1.8 billion yuan in Yiluo Industrial Park to build China Bearing Technology Research Institute and bearing technology industrialization projects, with investment scales of 250million yuan and 1.55 billion yuan respectively. In view of the company's strong technical R & D strength and new product development ability, we believe that the company's future development prospects are relatively happy, so there is no need to spend more money to buy a microcomputer controlled view. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.53, 0.68 and 0.85 yuan, and the reasonable valuation range is yuan

RIFA digital (002520): the development prospect of bearing grinding ultra automatic line is promising. The company is a small and medium-sized private machine tool enterprise, and its bearing grinding and ultra automatic line equipment is at the domestic leading level. At present, the company is positioned as a popular high-end CNC machine tool, with a CNC rate of 100%, high product accuracy and technical level, and a comprehensive gross profit margin of more than 35%, ranking first in the domestic market segment of CNC wheel lathe. As a typical private enterprise in Zhejiang, the company has a good management system, is good at attracting talents, and has great development potential. We believe that as a raised investment project of the company, the technology of bearing grinding and ultra automatic line equipment ranks the leading level in China, and the future market prospect is promising. We expect the company's EPS to be 1.05, 1.35 and 1.80 yuan, with a reasonable valuation range of yuan

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